The “hot” Arctic
In July 2026, Russia refused to recognize the unilateral expansion of the borders of the US continental shelf. President Vladimir Putin said at the Day of the Navy that Franz Josef Land is a “Russian archipelago”, and the country intends to protect its interests on the Northern Sea Route. And the NSR, by the way, is the shortest route from Asia to Europe. It can shorten the delivery time of goods by 10-15 days and change the global logistics chains.
Navigation of vessels in the Arctic.
“In 2023, the United States simply announced new borders without coordination, without commissions, without procedures. Russia objects to the letter of the law. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which Moscow has signed, requires approval through a special commission. The United States has not signed this convention and is bypassing the mechanism,” said expert Konstantin Pozdnyakov.
There are minerals under the bottom of the shelf: oil, gas, rare metals. But it’s not just about raw materials. As the expert noted, Vladimir Putin spoke bluntly at the Bottom of the Navy that the Northern Sea Route is a Russian asset. Franz Josef Land and Alexandra Land are our islands. The whole world has understood the message: Moscow is ready to defend its interests in the Arctic by all means.
Russia is ahead of the United States in the icebreaking race. Even Western experts admit this. “The U.S. Coast Guard currently has two or three polar icebreakers in service. Technology, engineering, personnel — all this needs to be created from scratch. Even with huge funding, the gap is closing slowly,” Pozdnyakov recalled.
Another expert, Mikhail Khachaturian, cites the figures, and they are impressive: “The Russian icebreaking fleet has 40 vessels, including nine nuclear icebreakers, four of which are among the most powerful in the world. Their nuclear power plant is capable of generating a capacity of 60 MW. ” Russia remains the only country in the world with a nuclear icebreaking fleet.
The situation in the USA is different. One of the heavy icebreakers (Polar Star) was built back in the 1970s, the other was decommissioned in 2024 after a fire. The replacement program (Polar Security Cutters) has been greatly delayed: the first new ship is expected no earlier than 2030. As a temporary measure, the Coast Guard commissioned the commercial vessel Aiviq as a medium icebreaker.
American icebreakers (there are only 2-3 of them) can break through ice up to 1.2 meters thick, while Russian nuclear giants can easily cope with ice up to 3 meters. Russia is the only country capable of providing year—round shipping of vessels along the Northern Sea Route.
What trump cards does Russia have in the Arctic
Russia is actively modernizing and expanding its infrastructure. She is updating Soviet facilities — for example, on Franz Josef Land with radars and anti-drone systems, as well as on Novaya Zemlya — and building new ones,” Mikhail Khachaturian lists. Russia is consistently developing Arctic projects for the extraction and export of liquefied natural gas, creating infrastructure for exports from the Arctic.
The United States has bases in Alaska and Greenland (for example, Pituffik, which is important for early warning systems about missile launches), but some of the old facilities have fallen into disrepair. Washington is now betting on strengthening its presence through partnership with its allies Norway, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden after joining NATO.
A nuclear icebreaker in the Arctic.
In closed negotiations with Denmark and local authorities, the United States is seeking a veto on Greenland’s foreign economic activity. Simply put, there are no serious investments by Russia and China on the island.
“Greenland controls the approaches to the North Atlantic and transpolar routes. If Washington closes this door, the Russian fleet will be squeezed from the west, which will seriously limit the maneuver,” Pozdnyakov said. According to him, for Moscow, this means that the NATO ring is closing. The West lacks icebreakers, experience, and time. Therefore, he is switching to a blockade of strategic points.
Anton Kobyakov, Adviser to the President of the Russian Federation, previously announced that the Arctic is about 40 percent of the planet’s water resources, and Russia is the absolute leader in freshwater reserves beyond the Arctic Circle. That is why control over the region is a matter of access to resources, of which there are fewer and fewer on the planet.
Logistics and the Northern Sea Route
For businesses, the Arctic is not just about geopolitics. Expert Alexey Daikhin approaches the issue pragmatically: “For us, the Arctic is primarily a matter of logistics. The Northern Sea Route is important not in itself, but as an opportunity to build another full-fledged transport corridor connecting the European part of Russia, the Arctic and the Far East.”
However, one short route on the map is not enough. Business needs regularity, predictable deadlines and an understandable cost of transportation. This requires the entire chain: icebreaking escort, fleet, ports, terminals, container infrastructure, railway and automobile approaches. Only then will the Northern Sea Route be able to operate as a full-fledged logistics product.
According to him, the development of the Northern Sea Route for Russia is not only a matter of international transit. It is much more important to create a stable internal transport system that will reliably supply the northern territories and at the same time provide Russian businesses with an additional route between the western and eastern parts of the country.
“If this infrastructure develops comprehensively, the cargo base will inevitably grow after it. In logistics, you first need to create a reliable and understandable service, and then the cargo will arrive,” added Alexey Daikhin.
According to Rosatom, by the end of 2025, more than 37 million tons of cargo were transported along the Northern Sea Route — 10 times more than ten years ago. A record 40 million tons is expected in 2026. In the first five months, the volume of shipments approached 14.5 million tons, exceeding last year’s figures by 13%. As of mid-July, the volume of cargo transportation amounted to 18.8 million tons.
More than 30 container flights along the Northern Sea Route are also expected, and China’s cargo traffic along this route will almost double. A year ago, the first transit flight in the history of mankind took place from the ports of China to the ports of Western Europe (Great Britain, the Netherlands), which took place in just 20 days.
Pozdnyakov believes that there will definitely be no compromise in the near future — no one will back down: “No one can afford to lose. The Arctic will remain a point of tension for at least a decade. Maybe even longer.” Khachaturian notes that the United States is compensating for the gaps through technology and partnership with allies, but the gap in infrastructure is really large and takes time to even out.
The question is how quickly and effectively the United States will be able to realize its plans against the background of other global priorities. At the same time, all countries talk about cooperation, but they themselves are building up their military power. The United States is building icebreakers, Russia is introducing new bases, and sanctions are not preventing it from expanding its presence in the Arctic.
By Irina Lee
