The Institute for Statistical Research and Economics of Knowledge at the National Research University Higher School of Economics has identified the priority technologies needed for careful and responsible use in the Arctic region using the iFORA big data analysis system. The calculations of this study are based on an array of about 150 thousand different sources in recent years, selected on the subject of the Arctic.
The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the Earth’s climate system, has vast reserves of natural resources and a unique biological diversity. At the same time, the Arctic is warming four times faster than the planetary norm, and the growth of economic activity creates an additional carbon burden on the fragile balance of the region. The new model of the Arctic presence provides for the integrated integration of end—to-end technologies that form an integrated ecosystem, from under-ice monitoring to decarbonization of transport and the creation of a “smart” infrastructure in permafrost conditions.
Robotic systems are becoming the basis for continuous exploration of remote areas of the Arctic and the Arctic Ocean. Autonomous uninhabited underwater vehicles are capable of conducting multi-month missions under pack ice (sea ice at least three meters thick), collecting data on temperature, salinity, etc.
Using on-board artificial intelligence (AI), they can independently change the routes and sampling mode to study the most scientifically important areas, such as the distribution zones of warm deep waters in Greenland. To cover large water areas, swarms of underwater gliders will be used, which can move in the water without traditional engines and simultaneously monitor thousands of square kilometers.
In addition to underwater robots, autonomous buoy stations are located on the ice and in the water column for an all-season observation system in the Arctic. Due to their high adaptability, they can analyze data and independently adjust their work settings: for example, increase the frequency of measurements when detecting abnormal warming of water or the beginning of glacier melting, activate additional sensors when registering seismic activity, transmit an alarm in real time, etc.
It is important to quickly transfer data collected from mobile and stationary platforms for analysis using high-speed and stable transmission technologies. Transarctic fiber-optic cables laid under the ocean floor are the basis of a new generation of strategic communications infrastructure that ensures connectivity and fault tolerance of global networks. Moreover, their role is not limited only to maintaining communication. The key innovation is the integration of these lines with underwater SMART cables equipped with various sensors for monitoring the state of the ocean.
For example, distributed acoustic sensing technology turns tens of kilometers of cable into a “microphone” capable of detecting underwater noise sources, the movement of ice floes, and even the movement of marine mammals around the clock. The first project to build such a large—scale infrastructure is the European Polar Connect: by 2030, a unique Arctic observatory will be created based on SMART cables to study the Arctic Ocean.
In conditions of constant ice cover, complex bottom topography and extreme temperatures, traditional methods of laying and maintaining fiber-optic communications are not applicable. Robotic devices for ice mounting can perform precise operations on the seabed without auxiliary carrier vessels: inspect the route, lay the cable, carry out diagnostics and repairs under the ice.
They are trying to integrate the continuous stream of data generated by underwater robots, scientific stations and sensor cables into a single control architecture. The digital twin of the Arctic acts as a virtual model of the region, combining disparate information flows from all elements of the observation network. It is used to predict the dynamics of glacier melting, assess the consequences of resource extraction, etc.
Among the practical applications of such a virtual model are AI systems for predictive analysis: which can, for example, if used to optimize logistics routes, simulate the formation of cracks, drift and compression of glacial fields and identify areas of severe storms or increased ship activity in advance.
According to forecasts by researchers who monitor climate change and calculate the negative effects of anthropogenic impact on the region using digital technologies, by 2100, up to 70% of the near-surface Arctic permafrost may melt due to total emissions and the carbon footprint of the transport sector. It is possible to significantly reduce the carbon intensity of ships by switching to alternative types of energy — hydrogen and ammonia engines for icebreakers, etc.
Ammonia, rich in hydrogen, is becoming a key candidate for the role of clean fuel for large-tonnage icebreakers. In parallel, the field of hydrogen engines for land and small-scale transport is developing. For example, the world’s most powerful (3,100 horsepower) hydrogen-powered railway locomotive has already been created, capable of replacing diesel counterparts in the Arctic zone.
The development of the hydrogen economy in the Arctic is directly related to the use of local natural gas reserves. The vast territories of the Arctic countries represent ideal and virtually unlimited reservoirs for the disposal of carbon dioxide, allowing not only to produce low-carbon hydrogen for their own needs, but also potentially to export it. The transition from gray hydrogen produced from methane to blue is possible thanks to the use of carbon capture and storage technology: carbon dioxide is captured and safely injected into deep geological formations.
However, efficient and safe storage of hydrogen in the Arctic remains a key technological barrier to alternative energy. Cryogenic storage systems for liquefied hydrogen are being created to ensure the deployment of a distributed infrastructure in the region that would include stable and compact metal hydride storage (hydrogen is stored in them in the form of metal hydrides), refueling stations for transport and long-term storage facilities for seasonal energy storage.
Arctic ice and waters rich in natural resources conceal entire ecosystems that are still poorly understood. New-generation miniature biosensors and environmental DNA sampling devices designed to operate in extreme cold conditions allow monitoring of biodiversity and inventory of marine organisms without the need to capture them, analyzing only traces of their DNA in samples from various environmental samples. Advanced sensors of this type, which have already been developed to identify phytoplankton, help predict the state of fish resources and the carbon cycle.
One of the priority areas of Arctic exploration is the study of permafrost and glaciers, since their melting can lead to the awakening of the ancient unique biosphere, including potentially pathogenic microorganisms. This cryophilic microbiota, which has been preserved in ice until now, is able to open access to biotechnologies based on cold-loving microorganisms. Their enzymes, stable at low temperatures, can become the basis for new industrial processes in the food and pharmaceutical industries or ecology, for example, for bioremediation of Arctic soils.
In addition to biological risks, widespread melting of glaciers is destabilizing landscapes and infrastructure throughout the Arctic region, creating a critical need to find new low-temperature composite materials and alloys. Smart engineering foundations for buildings in permafrost can monitor subsidence and the thermal condition of the foundation in real time, compensating for changes. Without the introduction of these technologies, new projects in the field of resource extraction, logistics or housing construction will carry risks of structural damage.
By Anastasia Malashina
